# A Bigger Tank, Not a Bigger Engine. Bradley Lake and 2030 > Fairbanks is burning 250,000 gallons of diesel a day, AEA's Curtis Thayer says. Published 2026-09-27 by Alaska AI. 9 slides. Canonical: https://alaskaaihq.com/archive/2026-09-27/ ## The story About 38 percent more electricity. Its dam is slated for 2030. A bigger tank, not a bigger engine. A new diversion dam would send Dixon Glacier meltwater through a 4.6-mile tunnel into Bradley Lake and raise its pool about 16 feet. Capacity barely moves. The plant gets more water to spend. 4.6 miles of tunnel to carry glacier water. AEA estimates the cost at about $400 million and expects construction to start in 2027 if federal approvals come through. FERC has the application under project P-8221-124. It buys energy, not megawatts. Today, Dixon's meltwater runs down the Martin River. "There's nothing for tomorrow. There's nothing for next year." Natural gas fuels about 80 percent of Southcentral's power generation, per KTUU. Fairbanks is burning 250,000 gallons of diesel a day, Thayer said. "They never did that last year." The AI pitch runs on the same calendar. The Air Force offered twelve parcels, about 4,700 acres, at JBER, Clear and Eielson for AI data centers. Its solicitation said the JBER sites had insufficient power and needed a new Chugach connection. What exists, and what is only filed. Until the glacier water arrives, should Railbelt AI data centers bring their own power? ## What we verified - Bradley Lake has 120 MW of installed capacity. [Alaska Energy Authority](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/What-We-Do/Railbelt-Energy/Bradley-Lake-Hydroelectric-Project), primary document, 2026-09-27. - AEA filed its Bradley Lake expansion amendment application with FERC on June 30th under project number P-8221-124. [Federal Register (FERC notice, FR Doc 2026-15691)](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-03/html/2026-15691.htm), primary document, 2026-08-03. - The expansion would build a new diversion dam to send Dixon Glacier meltwater and runoff into Bradley Lake. [Federal Register (FERC notice, FR Doc 2026-15691)](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-03/html/2026-15691.htm), primary document, 2026-08-03. - The expansion would raise Bradley Lake's normal maximum operating pool by about 16 feet. [Federal Register (FERC notice, FR Doc 2026-15691)](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-03/html/2026-15691.htm), primary document, 2026-08-03. - The expansion would add a 0.3 MW micro-hydro turbine in one of Bradley Lake Dam's fishwater release valves. [Federal Register (FERC notice, FR Doc 2026-15691)](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-03/html/2026-15691.htm), primary document, 2026-08-03. - The expansion would raise Bradley Lake's installed capacity from 119.7 MW to 120.0 MW. [Federal Register (FERC notice, FR Doc 2026-15691)](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-03/html/2026-15691.htm), primary document, 2026-08-03. - FERC's notice says the expansion would raise Bradley Lake's average annual power generation by approximately 38 percent. [Federal Register (FERC notice, FR Doc 2026-15691)](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-03/html/2026-15691.htm), primary document, 2026-08-03. - FERC set the comment deadline on the amendment application for August 28th at 5 p.m. Eastern. [Federal Register (FERC notice, FR Doc 2026-15691)](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-03/html/2026-15691.htm), primary document, 2026-08-03. - The Dixon diversion's estimated construction cost is about $400 million. [Alaska Energy Authority](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/What-We-Do/Railbelt-Energy/Bradley-Lake-Hydroelectric-Project/Dixon-Diversion-Project), primary document, 2026-09-27. - AEA estimates three years of study and permitting followed by three years of construction. [Alaska Energy Authority](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/What-We-Do/Railbelt-Energy/Bradley-Lake-Hydroelectric-Project/Dixon-Diversion-Project), primary document, 2026-09-27. - The Dixon diversion would be located five miles southwest of Bradley Lake. [Alaska Energy Authority](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/What-We-Do/Railbelt-Energy/Bradley-Lake-Hydroelectric-Project/Dixon-Diversion-Project), primary document, 2026-09-27. - The Dixon diversion would be about 27 miles northeast of Homer on the Kenai Peninsula. [Alaska Energy Authority](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/What-We-Do/Railbelt-Energy/Bradley-Lake-Hydroelectric-Project/Dixon-Diversion-Project), primary document, 2026-09-27. - From 1995 through 2020 Bradley Lake averaged 392,000 megawatt-hours a year. [Alaska Energy Authority](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/What-We-Do/Railbelt-Energy/Bradley-Lake-Hydroelectric-Project), primary document, 2026-09-27. - Bradley Lake provides about 10 percent of the total annual power used by Railbelt utilities. [Alaska Energy Authority](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/What-We-Do/Railbelt-Energy/Bradley-Lake-Hydroelectric-Project), primary document, 2026-09-27. - Bradley Lake began operating in 1991. [Alaska Energy Authority (press release, July 20th)](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/Portals/0/Who%20We%20Are/News%20Room/Press%20Releases/2026.07.20%20AEA%20Files%20Final%20Amendment%20Application%20for%20BLEP%20Press%20Release%20(Final)2.pdf), primary document, 2026-07-20. - Bradley Lake's power has cost about four cents per kilowatt-hour. [Alaska Energy Authority](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/What-We-Do/Railbelt-Energy/Bradley-Lake-Hydroelectric-Project), primary document, 2026-09-27. - On July 20th AEA announced it had filed a Final Amendment Application with FERC for the Bradley Lake Expansion Project. [Alaska Energy Authority (press release, July 20th)](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/Portals/0/Who%20We%20Are/News%20Room/Press%20Releases/2026.07.20%20AEA%20Files%20Final%20Amendment%20Application%20for%20BLEP%20Press%20Release%20(Final)2.pdf), primary document, 2026-07-20. - AEA says the expansion would add about 167,000 MWh a year, bringing Bradley Lake to about 603,000 MWh. [Alaska Energy Authority (press release, July 20th)](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/Portals/0/Who%20We%20Are/News%20Room/Press%20Releases/2026.07.20%20AEA%20Files%20Final%20Amendment%20Application%20for%20BLEP%20Press%20Release%20(Final)2.pdf), primary document, 2026-07-20. - AEA says Bradley Lake currently generates about 436,000 MWh a year. [Alaska Energy Authority (press release, July 20th)](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/Portals/0/Who%20We%20Are/News%20Room/Press%20Releases/2026.07.20%20AEA%20Files%20Final%20Amendment%20Application%20for%20BLEP%20Press%20Release%20(Final)2.pdf), primary document, 2026-07-20. - AEA says the added energy could power up to 30,000 homes. [Alaska Energy Authority (press release, July 20th)](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/Portals/0/Who%20We%20Are/News%20Room/Press%20Releases/2026.07.20%20AEA%20Files%20Final%20Amendment%20Application%20for%20BLEP%20Press%20Release%20(Final)2.pdf), primary document, 2026-07-20. - The expansion would use a diversion dam near Dixon Glacier and a 4.6-mile tunnel to carry water into Bradley Lake. [Alaska Energy Authority (press release, July 20th)](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/Portals/0/Who%20We%20Are/News%20Room/Press%20Releases/2026.07.20%20AEA%20Files%20Final%20Amendment%20Application%20for%20BLEP%20Press%20Release%20(Final)2.pdf), primary document, 2026-07-20. - Bradley Lake supplies power to five Railbelt utilities, namely Chugach Electric, Golden Valley Electric, Homer Electric, Matanuska Electric and Seward Electric. [Alaska Energy Authority (press release, July 20th)](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/Portals/0/Who%20We%20Are/News%20Room/Press%20Releases/2026.07.20%20AEA%20Files%20Final%20Amendment%20Application%20for%20BLEP%20Press%20Release%20(Final)2.pdf), primary document, 2026-07-20. - AEA says construction on the expansion is anticipated to begin in 2027, pending federal approvals. [Alaska Energy Authority (press release, July 23rd)](https://www.akenergyauthority.org/Portals/0/Who%20We%20Are/News%20Room/Press%20Releases/2026.07.23%20AEA%20Board%20Advances%20Financing%20Framework%20for%20BLEP%20Press%20Release%20(Final).pdf), primary document, 2026-07-23. - The Railbelt's five load-serving electric utilities are interconnected across nearly 700 miles. [Railbelt Reliability Council](https://www.akrrc.org/about-rrc), primary document, 2026-09-27. - The Railbelt is home to nearly three-fourths of Alaska's population. [Railbelt Reliability Council](https://www.akrrc.org/about-rrc), primary document, 2026-09-27. - The Railbelt Reliability Council describes the Railbelt grid as islanded. [Railbelt Reliability Council](https://www.akrrc.org/standards-2), primary document, 2026-09-27. - Alaska DNR issued a preliminary decision on STAK Energy Corporation's lease application ADL 422741. [Alaska DNR Division of Oil and Gas](https://aws.state.ak.us/OnlinePublicNotices/Notices/View.aspx?id=224224), primary document, 2026-06-17. - The STAK Energy lease would run 50 years. [Alaska DNR Division of Oil and Gas](https://aws.state.ak.us/OnlinePublicNotices/Notices/View.aspx?id=224224), primary document, 2026-06-17. - The STAK Energy lease covers a 715.4-acre parcel about 26 miles south of Deadhorse along the Dalton Highway. [Alaska DNR Division of Oil and Gas](https://aws.state.ak.us/OnlinePublicNotices/Notices/View.aspx?id=224224), primary document, 2026-06-17. - STAK's proposed natural gas-powered data center would be behind the meter and not interconnected to the Railbelt or any other Alaska grid. [Alaska DNR Division of Oil and Gas (preliminary decision)](https://aws.state.ak.us/OnlinePublicNotices/Notices/Attachment.aspx?id=161957), primary document, 2026-05-12. - USGS stream gage 15238950, East Fork Martin River below Dixon Glacier near Homer, sits at 59 41 34.07 N, 150 55 06.11 W (NAD83), altitude 1,338 feet. [USGS NWIS site service](https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/site/?sites=15238950&format=rdb&siteOutput=expanded), primary document, 2026-09-27. - UAA's RAISE mini-grant partner statement of need was due September 21st. [UAA College of Engineering](https://coeng.uaa.alaska.edu/AI/raise-mini-grants-community/), primary document, 2026-09-27. - RAISE mini-grant awards will be announced November 2nd. [UAA College of Engineering](https://coeng.uaa.alaska.edu/AI/raise-mini-grants-community/), primary document, 2026-09-27. - Any Alaskan organization outside the university may apply, including businesses, Alaska Native organizations, K-12 schools, governments and nonprofits. [UAA College of Engineering](https://coeng.uaa.alaska.edu/AI/raise-mini-grants-community/), primary document, 2026-09-27. - The mini-grants are part of UAA's Rural AI Solutions and Engagement project funded by NSF award 2433241. [UAA College of Engineering](https://coeng.uaa.alaska.edu/AI/raise-mini-grants-community/), primary document, 2026-09-27. - NSF award 2433241 is titled Collaborative Research EPIIC Rural AI Solutions and Engagement (RAISE) and went to the University of Alaska Anchorage. [National Science Foundation award database](https://api.nsf.gov/services/v1/awards/2433241.json), primary document, 2024-07-29. - UAA's share of the RAISE award is $380,000. [National Science Foundation award database](https://api.nsf.gov/services/v1/awards/2433241.json), primary document, 2024-07-29. - The RAISE award runs from August 1st, 2024 through July 31st, 2027. [National Science Foundation award database](https://api.nsf.gov/services/v1/awards/2433241.json), primary document, 2024-07-29. - UA's Faculty Initiative Fund awarded $29,989 to Alpana Desai and Marie Lowe of UAA for an AI community planning system for rural Alaska. [University of Alaska System](https://www.alaska.edu/research/initiative/2026%20fif%20awardees.php), primary document, 2026-02-12. - The Desai and Lowe project works with Alakanuk, a Yup'ik community on the Yukon River Delta threatened by erosion. [University of Alaska System](https://www.alaska.edu/research/initiative/2026%20fif%20awardees.php), primary document, 2026-02-12. - The Faculty Initiative Fund awarded $29,998.84 to Andrew Harnish of UAA for the Second UA Statewide AI Symposium. [University of Alaska System](https://www.alaska.edu/research/initiative/2026%20fif%20awardees.php), primary document, 2026-02-12. - The Alaska Energy Authority has hosted three of the five FERC commissioners at Bradley Lake. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - The commissioner visits were prompted by a longstanding requirement from Senators Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan that nominees visit Alaska before confirmation. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - The KTUU story was written by Augusta McDonnell and published the evening of September 24th. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - KTUU reported that the expansion work will increase Bradley Lake's water capacity by 40 percent. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Dam construction for the Bradley Lake expansion is slated for completion in 2030. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Transmission line upgrades tied to the expansion will not wrap up until 2031 or 2032. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Curtis Thayer said Fairbanks is using 250,000 gallons of diesel a day because there isn't enough natural gas to ship there. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Thayer said Fairbanks did not burn diesel at that rate last year. [WebCenter Fairbanks (Gray Media, KTUU story)](https://www.webcenterfairbanks.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Natural gas fuels about 80 percent of electric power generation in Southcentral Alaska. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Roughly 75 percent of Alaska's population relies on the interconnected Railbelt transmission network. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - KTUU describes the Railbelt population as stretching 600 miles from Homer north to Fairbanks. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - AEA and the Alaska Housing Finance Corporation are rolling out $74 million in federal grants this fall for appliance rebates and weatherization upgrades. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - AEA and Railbelt utilities are spending about a billion dollars on construction projects this year. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Curtis Thayer is CEO and executive director of the Alaska Energy Authority. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Thayer said there is nothing for tomorrow and nothing for next year. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Thayer said the projects meant to change the energy picture are within a four- to five-year window. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Thayer said Alaskans will have to turn off the lights and turn down the heat to conserve natural gas during a long cold period. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Thayer said Alaskans can't keep all their thermostats at 72 degrees. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Thayer warned that in a two-week stretch of 20-below weather in Anchorage, voluntary consumer cutbacks would be essential to keep the system running. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Thayer said a long cold streak or cold snap would require conservation. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Spencer Perry is an assistant professor of economics and policy at the University of Alaska Anchorage. [WebCenter Fairbanks (Gray Media, KTUU story)](https://www.webcenterfairbanks.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Perry said diesel fuel has been constrained by conflicts in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - Officials say Southcentral will likely need to import liquefied natural gas as a bridge fuel. [Alaska's News Source (KTUU)](https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/09/25/theres-nothing-tomorrow-cook-inlet-gas-crunch-global-markets-squeeze-alaska-railbelt-grid/), report, 2026-09-24. - An Air Force solicitation said the JBER data center sites have insufficient power and would need a new connection to Chugach Electric. [Anchorage Daily News](https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/military/2026/05/05/the-military-wants-to-host-data-centers-in-alaska-raising-questions-about-whether-theres-enough-gas-to-power-them/), report, 2026-05-05. - Chugach Electric's gas supply contract with Hilcorp Alaska is set to end in 2028. [Anchorage Daily News](https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/military/2026/05/05/the-military-wants-to-host-data-centers-in-alaska-raising-questions-about-whether-theres-enough-gas-to-power-them/), report, 2026-05-05. - The Air Force offered five sites at JBER ranging from about 60 to nearly 200 acres. [Anchorage Daily News](https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/military/2026/05/05/the-military-wants-to-host-data-centers-in-alaska-raising-questions-about-whether-theres-enough-gas-to-power-them/), report, 2026-05-05. - The Air Force identified about 4,700 acres for AI data centers on Air Force and Space Force installations in Alaska. [Air and Space Forces Magazine](https://www.airandspaceforces.com/usaf-land-ai-data-centers-three-alaska-bases/), report, 2026-04-11. - Twelve parcels were identified across JBER, Clear Space Force Station and Eielson Air Force Base. [Air and Space Forces Magazine](https://www.airandspaceforces.com/usaf-land-ai-data-centers-three-alaska-bases/), report, 2026-04-11. - The symposium's Friday September 25th program at UAA was free and open to the public, with most sessions online. [Anchorage Economic Development Corporation](https://aedcweb.com/ua-to-host-statewide-ai-symposium/), report, 2026-08-12. - The symposium's AI and Alaska session covered rural connectivity and compute, Alaska Native language and data sovereignty, and locally controlled models. [Anchorage Economic Development Corporation](https://aedcweb.com/ua-to-host-statewide-ai-symposium/), report, 2026-08-12. - Futurist Bryan Alexander was announced as the symposium keynote speaker. [Anchorage Economic Development Corporation](https://aedcweb.com/ua-to-host-statewide-ai-symposium/), report, 2026-08-12. - The symposium's Saturday sessions covered UA teaching, research funding and information security, and Sunday closed with a strategy session for the statewide AI advisory council. [Anchorage Economic Development Corporation](https://aedcweb.com/ua-to-host-statewide-ai-symposium/), report, 2026-08-12. Slides and the deck PDF are linked from the canonical page.