A Year After Halong, the Map Under the AI Forecast

FEMA's disaster declaration DR-4893-AK covers severe storms, flooding and the remnants of Typhoon Halong over an incident period of October 8th to 13th, 2025.

The federal disaster for Halong was declared on October 22nd, 2025.

FEMA's disaster page lists $49,887,506.98 in Individuals and Households Program dollars approved for DR-4893-AK as of its July 14th update.

NOAA launched a suite of operational AI-driven global weather prediction models in December 2025.

A single 16-day forecast from NOAA's AIGFS uses 0.3% of the computing resources of the operational GFS.

An AIGFS 16-day forecast finishes in approximately 40 minutes.

NOAA says AIGFS shows a significant reduction in tropical cyclone track errors at longer lead times.

NOAA says version 1.0 of AIGFS shows a degradation in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts that future versions will address.

NOAA built AIGFS starting from Google DeepMind's GraphCast model as an initial foundation.

NOAA fine-tuned its AI model using NOAA's own Global Data Assimilation System analyses.

NOAA's HGEFS is a 62-member grand ensemble combining the 31 members of the physical GEFS with 31 AI-based AIGEFS members.

NOAA says it is the first organization in the world to implement a hybrid physical-AI ensemble system.

NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs called NOAA's strategic application of AI a significant leap forward in American weather model innovation.

NCEP uses the Global Data Assimilation System to interpolate data from a variety of observing systems and instruments onto a three-dimensional grid.

The observation types NCEI lists for GDAS include surface, balloon, aircraft reports, buoy, radar and satellite.

A decade ago, dedicated AI sea ice prediction systems barely existed.

Dedicated AI sea ice prediction systems now number in the dozens, covering both poles.

Figure 2 of the Eos article groups 20 existing AI sea ice systems.

The Eos authors write that speed and skill are not the same as trustworthiness.

The Eos authors write that the observations needed to build and stress test AI sea ice systems remain sparse across both poles.

Passive microwave sensors have mapped sea ice concentrations across both poles since 1978.

The Eos authors write that AI models are often trained on reanalyses derived from process-based simulations.

The Eos authors write that Indigenous communities in the Arctic depend on reliable forecasts for safe travel and hunting.

The Eos authors write that calculations which once took days on a supercomputer can now run in minutes on a laptop.

In February 2025 the National Weather Service indefinitely suspended weather balloon launches at Kotzebue, Alaska, due to a lack of forecast office staffing.

The Kotzebue upper air station's NWS site identifier is PAOT.

The NWS launches weather balloons from 100 upper air sites throughout the United States and the Caribbean.

NWS said Kotzebue's missing data would be partly offset by balloons from neighboring upper air sites, satellite soundings and aircraft instruments.

NOAA Fisheries says uncrewed surface vehicles working with NOAA ships on Alaska pollock acoustic surveys can cover the same area in 40 percent less time than a ship alone.

NOAA Fisheries says it is using AI and near-infrared analysis of otoliths to age long-lived rockfish.

Near-infrared otolith analysis takes 30 to 50 seconds per otolith, more than 10 times faster than humans using microscopes.

NOAA Fisheries has run year-round passive acoustic recordings from equipment moored at 23 sites since 2007.

NOAA Fisheries says AI automates image processing to speed data delivery and save costs.

NOAA Fisheries says a system developed with partners uses very high-resolution satellite technology and AI to detect and study whales and other marine mammals from space.

NOAA Fisheries trained AI-enabled models to detect heat signatures of seals in infrared imagery for Arctic aerial surveys.

The NOAA Fisheries page on innovative technologies in Alaska marine research was last updated on October 6th.

Climatologist Rick Thoman told KYUK that since April, weather stations at all of the Y-K Delta region's airports have gone through periods of days or weeks with no observations.

KYUK identifies Rick Thoman as a climatologist.

Thoman said ex-typhoon Halong was uniquely challenging for forecasters.

Thoman said global models did a good job forecasting Halong's track into the Bering Sea.

Thoman said global models failed to forecast Halong's eastward shift.

KYUK reported that a lack of weather balloon launches at sites across Western Alaska may have played a role.

Thoman told KYUK that ocean observations are needed.

Thoman told KYUK that current observations are needed especially where local effects matter.

Thoman said the observations he wants go beyond more Federal Aviation Administration weather stations.

More than 1,500 people were forced from their homes by Halong.

Within four days of the storm, the vast majority of evacuees had left Bethel for Anchorage on C-17 transport planes.

In Kipnuk, 90% of buildings were damaged or destroyed.

The Kipnuk tribe said 974 people were living in Kipnuk, and nearly all of them evacuated.

NASA satellite images show Halong's saltwater inundation reaching more than 15 miles onto the tundra.

In Quinhagak, Halong peeled back as much as 60 feet of the Bering Sea coastline.

In the 50 years before 2022's ex-Typhoon Merbok, only one ex-typhoon had been recorded in Alaska.

Thoman said Alaska has had three ex-typhoons in the four years since 2022.

The record November 1974 storm in Nome brought water levels nearly 12 feet above the high tide line and was not spawned by a typhoon.

Alaska emergency management spokesperson Jeremy Zidek said 675 homes across the region still need repairs.

KYUK reported, citing a FEMA press release, that FEMA has paid out more than $100 million to people affected by Halong over the past year.

FEMA's continued temporary housing assistance runs out in April 2027, leaving 189 households without rental relief.

NWS meteorologist Aviva Braun said forecasters keep flagging that their land survey data predates Halong.

Braun said the weather service is calling communities to get local observations as new storms unfold.

Ex-Typhoon Halong caused widespread inundation along the Kuskokwim Delta coast on October 12th, 2025.

Federal funding announced in 2025 promised more than 160 new weather stations to Alaska to make flying safer.

Alaska Public Media's headline says Alaska is getting more than 100 new weather stations.

Weather experts have said that on any given day 10% to 15% of Alaska's aviation weather stations are down or not fully working.

As of late April, the FAA had not said where Alaska's new weather stations will be.

The Bristol Bay red king crab catch limit is set at 3.4 million pounds this season.

The Bering Sea Tanner crab catch limit increased to 32.1 million pounds.

The Bering Sea snow crab catch is set at 5.1 million pounds as the stock rebuilds.

Jamie Goen of the Alaska Bering Sea Crabbers said crab is up 75% from last year across the three stocks.

Since 2022 the Bering Sea crab fleet has declined from 60 vessels to 40.

The Bristol Bay red king crab, Bering Sea snow crab and Tanner crab seasons opened on Thursday, October 15th.